Expectancy Expectancy
The average rupee amount you can expect to gain or lose per trade over many trades. कई trades के बाद औसतन प्रति trade कितने रुपये मिलेंगे या जाएँगे — इसका अनुमान।
Expectancy is the average outcome per trade when you account for both the win rate and the size of wins versus losses: Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). A strategy with a 45% win rate, ₹4,000 average win, and ₹2,000 average loss has expectancy of (0.45 × 4000) − (0.55 × 2000) = ₹700 per trade. Positive expectancy is the minimum requirement for a sustainable trading system — if it's negative, no position-sizing trick can save it.
Expectancy प्रति trade का औसत परिणाम है जब win rate और win/loss की size दोनों को मिलाकर देखा जाए: Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). एक strategy जिसका win rate 45%, average win ₹4,000 और average loss ₹2,000 है, उसकी expectancy (0.45 × 4000) − (0.55 × 2000) = ₹700 प्रति trade होगी। Positive expectancy एक टिकाऊ trading system की न्यूनतम ज़रूरत है — अगर यह negative है तो कोई भी position-sizing trick उसे नहीं बचा सकती।